Each reading is ranked against its own history. A pillar score is the average of how adverse its readings are, 0 meaning the most favorable reading on record and 100 the least.
Latest values with changes, percentile rank against the full history shown in the tooltip, and the last 26 weeks where the series updates at least weekly.
Quarter-end values since 1990, with NBER recessions shaded. Triangles on the first chart mark the events in the table below.
Each signal is tested on every month since 1990. A hit is a month that falls inside a recession or within 12 months before one.
Months since 1990 that look most like today across seven readings: 10-year yield, curve slope, unemployment, CPI, Fed funds, consumer sentiment and VIX. Distance is in standard deviations; lower is closer.
The same readings in the month of each market event. The last column is the Nasdaq Composite's return over the following 12 months.